Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?
AI summary
Editorial policyA post arguing that prediction markets showed no advantage over polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model in close races during the midterms.
Key points
- •Prediction markets showed no alpha compared to traditional polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model in close or flipped races.
- •The author suggests treating prediction markets as entertainment and taxing them due to terrible ads.
- •The post questions the widespread hype that prediction markets are a guiding light in a dark world.
#Regulation, Ethics & Society#FLIPR